ARMA tahminini açmak

Şimdi önceki egzersizde eğittiğin arma modelini kullanarak Amazon hisse senedi veri kümesinin mutlak değerini tahmin edeceksin. Bazen farkı tahmin etmek yeterli olabilir; hisseler yükselecek mi, düşecek mi; ama bazen de mutlak değer kritik öneme sahiptir.

Son egzersizde eğittiğin modelden elde edilen sonuç nesnesi çalışma ortamında arma_results olarak mevcut. np.cumsum() fonksiyonu ve orijinal DataFrame amazon da mevcut.

Bu egzersiz

Python'da ARIMA Modelleri

kursunun bir parçasıdır

Kursu Görüntüle

Egzersiz talimatları

arima_results nesnesinin .get_forecast() metodunu kullan ve sonraki 10 farkın tahmin edilen ortalamasını seç.
Fark tahminini bütünleştirmek için np.cumsum() fonksiyonunu kullan.
Tahminini mutlak değere çevirmek için orijinal DataFrame'in son değerini ekle.

Uygulamalı interaktif egzersiz

Bu örnek kodu tamamlayarak bu egzersizi bitirin.

# Make arma forecast of next 10 differences
arma_diff_forecast = arma_results.____(steps=____).____

# Integrate the difference forecast
arma_int_forecast = ____

# Make absolute value forecast
arma_value_forecast = arma_int_forecast + amazon.____

# Print forecast
print(arma_value_forecast)

Kodu Düzenle ve Çalıştır

Bu egzersiz

Python'da ARIMA Modelleri

kursunun bir parçasıdır

AvançadoNível de habilidade

4.9+

Kursa Ücretsiz Başlayın

Dive straight in and learn about the most important properties of time series. You'll learn about stationarity and how this is important for ARMA models. You'll learn how to test for stationarity by eye and with a standard statistical test. Finally, you'll learn the basic structure of ARMA models and use this to generate some ARMA data and fit an ARMA model.

Exercise 1: Intro to time series and stationarity Exercise 2: Exploration Exercise 3: Train-test splits Exercise 4: Is it stationary Exercise 5: Making time series stationary Exercise 6: Augmented Dicky-Fuller Exercise 7: Taking the difference Exercise 8: Other tranforms Exercise 9: Intro to AR, MA and ARMA models Exercise 10: Model order Exercise 11: Generating ARMA data Exercise 12: Fitting Prelude

What lies ahead in this chapter is you predicting what lies ahead in your data. You'll learn how to use the elegant statsmodels package to fit ARMA, ARIMA and ARMAX models. Then you'll use your models to predict the uncertain future of stock prices!

Exercise 1: Zaman serisi modellerini uydurma Exercise 2: AR ve MA modellerini uydurma Exercise 3: Bir ARMA modeli uydurma Exercise 4: Bir ARMAX modeli uydurma Exercise 5: Tahminleme Exercise 6: Bir adım ileriden tahminler üretme Exercise 7: Bir adım ilerisi tahminlerini görselleştirme Exercise 8: Dinamik tahminler üretme Exercise 9: Dinamik tahminleri görselleştirme Exercise 10: ARIMA modellere giriş Exercise 11: Fark alma ve ARMA uydurma Exercise 12: ARMA tahminini açmak

Geçerli Egzersiz

Exercise 13: Bir ARIMA modeli uyarlama Exercise 14: ARIMA modeli seçimi

In this chapter, you will become a modeler of discerning taste. You'll learn how to identify promising model orders from the data itself, then, once the most promising models have been trained, you'll learn how to choose the best model from this fitted selection. You'll also learn a great framework for structuring your time series projects.

Exercise 1: Intro to ACF and PACF Exercise 2: AR or MA Exercise 3: Order of earthquakes Exercise 4: Intro to AIC and BIC Exercise 5: Searching over model order Exercise 6: Choosing order with AIC and BIC Exercise 7: AIC and BIC vs ACF and PACF Exercise 8: Model diagnostics Exercise 9: Mean absolute error Exercise 10: Diagnostic summary statistics Exercise 11: Plot diagnostics Exercise 12: Box-Jenkins method Exercise 13: Identification Exercise 14: Identification II Exercise 15: Estimation Exercise 16: Diagnostics

In this final chapter, you'll learn how to use seasonal ARIMA models to fit more complex data. You'll learn how to decompose this data into seasonal and non-seasonal parts and then you'll get the chance to utilize all your ARIMA tools on one last global forecast challenge.

Exercise 1: Seasonal time series Exercise 2: Seasonal decompose Exercise 3: Seasonal ACF and PACF Exercise 4: SARIMA models Exercise 5: Fitting SARIMA models Exercise 6: Choosing SARIMA order Exercise 7: SARIMA vs ARIMA forecasts Exercise 8: Automation and saving Exercise 9: Automated model selection Exercise 10: Saving and updating models Exercise 11: SARIMA and Box-Jenkins Exercise 12: Multiplicative vs additive seasonality Exercise 13: SARIMA model diagnostics Exercise 14: SARIMA forecast Exercise 15: Congratulations!