Mengeksplorasi opsi auto.arima()

Fungsi auto.arima() perlu mengestimasi banyak model yang berbeda, dan berbagai jalan pintas digunakan untuk membuat fungsi ini secepat mungkin. Hal ini dapat menyebabkan model yang dikembalikan sebenarnya tidak memiliki nilai AICc terkecil. Untuk membuat auto.arima() bekerja lebih keras dalam menemukan model yang baik, tambahkan argumen opsional stepwise = FALSE agar mempertimbangkan kumpulan model yang jauh lebih besar.

Di sini, Anda akan mencoba mencari model ARIMA untuk data a10 yang sudah dimuat, yang berisi subsidi obat anti-diabetes bulanan di Australia dari 1991 hingga 2008 dalam jutaan dolar Australia. Periksa di konsol sebelum memulai latihan ini.

Latihan ini adalah bagian dari kursus

Peramalan di R

Petunjuk latihan

Gunakan opsi bawaan auto.arima() untuk menemukan model ARIMA bagi a10 dan simpan sebagai fit1.
Gunakan auto.arima() tanpa pencarian stepwise untuk menemukan model ARIMA bagi a10 dan simpan sebagai fit2.
Jalankan summary() untuk fit1 dan fit2 di konsol Anda, lalu gunakan hasilnya untuk menentukan model yang lebih baik. Hingga 2 tempat desimal, berapa nilai AICc-nya? Tetapkan angkanya ke AICc.
Terakhir, dengan menggunakan model yang lebih baik berdasarkan AICc, plot prakiraan 2 tahun. Atur h sesuai.

Latihan interaktif praktis

Cobalah latihan ini dengan menyelesaikan kode contoh berikut.

# Find an ARIMA model for a10
fit1 <- ___

# Don't use a stepwise search
fit2 <- ___

# AICc of better model
AICc <- ___

# Compute 2-year forecasts from better model
___ %>% ___ %>% ___

Edit dan Jalankan Kode

Latihan ini adalah bagian dari kursus

Peramalan di R

SkillTag.level.beginnerSkillTag.label

4.9+

Mulai Kursus Gratis

The first thing to do in any data analysis task is to plot the data. Graphs enable many features of the data to be visualized, including patterns, unusual observations, and changes over time. The features that are seen in plots of the data must then be incorporated, as far as possible, into the forecasting methods to be used.

Exercise 1: Welcome to Forecasting Using R Exercise 2: Creating time series objects in R Exercise 3: Time series plots Exercise 4: Seasonal plots Exercise 5: Trends, seasonality, and cyclicity Exercise 6: Autocorrelation of non-seasonal time series Exercise 7: Autocorrelation of seasonal and cyclic time series Exercise 8: Match the ACF to the time series Exercise 9: White noise Exercise 10: Stock prices and white noise

In this chapter, you will learn general tools that are useful for many different forecasting situations. It will describe some methods for benchmark forecasting, methods for checking whether a forecasting method has adequately utilized the available information, and methods for measuring forecast accuracy. Each of the tools discussed in this chapter will be used repeatedly in subsequent chapters as you develop and explore a range of forecasting methods.

Exercise 1: Forecasts and potential futures Exercise 2: Naive forecasting methods Exercise 3: Fitted values and residuals Exercise 4: Checking time series residuals Exercise 5: Training and test sets Exercise 6: Evaluating forecast accuracy of non-seasonal methods Exercise 7: Evaluating forecast accuracy of seasonal methods Exercise 8: Do I have a good forecasting model?Exercise 9: Time series cross-validation Exercise 10: Using tsCV() for time series cross-validation

Forecasts produced using exponential smoothing methods are weighted averages of past observations, with the weights decaying exponentially as the observations get older. In other words, the more recent the observation, the higher the associated weight. This framework generates reliable forecasts quickly and for a wide range of time series, which is a great advantage and of major importance to applications in business.

Exercise 1: Exponentially weighted forecasts Exercise 2: Simple exponential smoothing Exercise 3: SES vs naive Exercise 4: Exponential smoothing methods with trend Exercise 5: Holt's trend methods Exercise 6: Exponential smoothing methods with trend and seasonality Exercise 7: Holt-Winters with monthly data Exercise 8: Holt-Winters method with daily data Exercise 9: State space models for exponential smoothing Exercise 10: Automatic forecasting with exponential smoothing Exercise 11: ETS vs seasonal naive Exercise 12: Match the models to the time series Exercise 13: When does ETS fail?

ARIMA models provide another approach to time series forecasting. Exponential smoothing and ARIMA models are the two most widely-used approaches to time series forecasting, and provide complementary approaches to the problem. While exponential smoothing models are based on a description of the trend and seasonality in the data, ARIMA models aim to describe the autocorrelations in the data.

Exercise 1: Transformasi untuk menstabilkan varians Exercise 2: Transformasi Box-Cox untuk deret waktu Exercise 3: Differencing non-musiman untuk stasioneritas Exercise 4: Pembedaan musiman untuk stasioneritas Exercise 5: Model ARIMA Exercise 6: Model ARIMA otomatis untuk deret waktu non-musiman Exercise 7: Peramalan dengan model ARIMA Exercise 8: Membandingkan auto.arima() dan ets() pada data non-musiman Exercise 9: Model ARIMA Musiman Exercise 10: Model ARIMA otomatis untuk deret waktu musiman Exercise 11: Mengeksplorasi opsi auto.arima()

Latihan Saat Ini

Exercise 12: Membandingkan auto.arima() dan ets() pada data musiman

The time series models in the previous chapters work well for many time series, but they are often not good for weekly or hourly data, and they do not allow for the inclusion of other information such as the effects of holidays, competitor activity, changes in the law, etc. In this chapter, you will look at some methods that handle more complicated seasonality, and you consider how to extend ARIMA models in order to allow other information to be included in the them.

Exercise 1: Dynamic regression Exercise 2: Forecasting sales allowing for advertising expenditure Exercise 3: Forecasting electricity demand Exercise 4: Dynamic harmonic regression Exercise 5: Forecasting weekly data Exercise 6: Harmonic regression for multiple seasonality Exercise 7: Forecasting call bookings Exercise 8: TBATS models Exercise 9: TBATS models for electricity demand Exercise 10: Your future in forecasting!