Seberapa sulit memproyeksikan harga komoditas?

Seperti disebutkan sebelumnya, menghasilkan uang dari komoditas tidaklah mudah. Untuk melihat sulitnya memprediksi suatu komoditas, Anda akan memprakirakan harga ayam hingga lima tahun ke depan. Setelah Anda menyelesaikan prakiraan, Anda akan melihat bahwa bahkan hanya beberapa tahun ke depan, rentang harga yang masih dapat diterima sangat lebar. Ini karena komoditas dipengaruhi oleh banyak sumber variasi.

Ingat bahwa sebelumnya Anda telah memasangkan model SARIMA(2,1,0, 1,0,0)₁₂ pada deret bulanan harga ayam AS chicken. Anda akan menggunakan model ini untuk menghitung prakiraan Anda.

Paket astsa telah dimuat untuk Anda dan data harga ayam bulanan (chicken) telah diplot.

Latihan ini adalah bagian dari kursus

Model ARIMA di R

Petunjuk latihan

Pasangkan ulang model SARIMA dari latihan sebelumnya dan yakinkan diri Anda bahwa model tersebut cocok dengan baik. Periksa signifikansi parameter dan diagnostik residual.
Gunakan sarima.for() untuk memprakirakan data 5 tahun ke depan.

Latihan interaktif praktis

Cobalah latihan ini dengan menyelesaikan kode contoh berikut.

# Fit the chicken model again and check diagnostics


# Forecast the chicken data 5 years into the future

Edit dan Jalankan Kode

Latihan ini adalah bagian dari kursus

Model ARIMA di R

SkillTag.level.beginnerSkillTag.label

4.9+

Mulai Kursus Gratis

You will investigate the nature of time series data and learn the basics of ARMA models that can explain the behavior of such data. You will learn the basic R commands needed to help set up raw time series data to a form that can be analyzed using ARMA models.

Exercise 1: First things first Exercise 2: Data play Exercise 3: Elements of time series Exercise 4: Stationarity and nonstationarity Exercise 5: Differencing Exercise 6: Detrending data Exercise 7: Dealing with trend and heteroscedasticity Exercise 8: Stationary time series: ARMA Exercise 9: Simulating ARMA models

You will discover the wonderful world of ARMA models and how to fit these models to time series data. You will learn how to identify a model, how to choose the correct model, and how to verify a model once you fit it to data. You will learn how to use R time series commands from the stats and astsa packages.

Exercise 1: AR and MA models Exercise 2: Fitting an AR(1) model Exercise 3: Fitting an AR(2) model Exercise 4: Fitting an MA(1) model Exercise 5: AR and MA together Exercise 6: Fitting an ARMA model Exercise 7: Identify an ARMA model Exercise 8: Model choice and residual analysis Exercise 9: Model choice - I Exercise 10: Model choice - II Exercise 11: Residual analysis - I Exercise 12: Residual analysis - II Exercise 13: ARMA get in

Now that you know how to fit ARMA models to stationary time series, you will learn about integrated ARMA (ARIMA) models for nonstationary time series. You will fit the models to real data using R time series commands from the stats and astsa packages.

Exercise 1: ARIMA - integrated ARMA Exercise 2: ARIMA - plug and play Exercise 3: Simulated ARIMA Exercise 4: Global warming Exercise 5: ARIMA diagnostics Exercise 6: Diagnostics - simulated overfitting Exercise 7: Diagnostics - global temperatures Exercise 8: Forecasting ARIMA Exercise 9: Forecasting simulated ARIMA Exercise 10: Forecasting global temperatures

You will learn how to fit and forecast seasonal time series data using seasonal ARIMA models. This is accomplished using what you learned in the previous chapters and by learning how to extend the R time series commands available in the stats and astsa packages.

Exercise 1: Model musiman murni Exercise 2: P/ACF untuk model musiman murni Exercise 3: Paskan model murni musiman Exercise 4: Model musiman campuran Exercise 5: Sesuaikan model musiman campuran Exercise 6: Analisis data - pengangguran I Exercise 7: Analisis data - pengangguran II Exercise 8: Analisis data - harga komoditas Exercise 9: Analisis data - tingkat kelahiran Exercise 10: Peramalan ARIMA musiman Exercise 11: Peramalan pengangguran bulanan Exercise 12: Seberapa sulit memproyeksikan harga komoditas?

Latihan Saat Ini

Exercise 13: Selamat!