Insights from the prior and data

Your prior & (scaled) likelihood models for \(m\), the average change in reaction time, are shown together here. The prior reflects information we had about \(m\) prior to running the sleep study. The likelihood reflects the relative compatibility of different \(m\) values with the data observed on the 18 sleep study subjects. Which of the following best describes the insights from the prior and likelihood?

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Possible Answers

The prior model and likelihood provide conflicting insights about the impact of sleep deprivation on reaction time - the data suggest that reaction times decrease whereas the prior suggests they increase.
press1
The prior model and likelihood are both consistent with the hypothesis that, on average, reaction times likely decrease under sleep deprivation.
press2
The prior model and likelihood are both consistent with the hypothesis that, on average, reaction times likely increase under sleep deprivation.
press3