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  3. Bayesian Modeling with RJAGS

Exercise

Updating the posterior

The posterior model of your underlying election support \(p\) is informed by both the prior model of \(p\) and polling data \(X\). Run the script to the right to remind yourself of the posterior that evolved from your original prior (Beta(45, 55)) and original poll data (\(X = 6\) of \(n = 10\) polled voters support you). The defined vote_model is in your workspace.

In a 3-step exercise, you will explore how using a different prior model or observing new data (or a combination of the two!) might impact the posterior.

Instructions 1/3

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Re-compile, simulate, and plot the \(p\) posterior to reflect the setting in which you start with a Beta(1,1) prior but observe the same polling data (\(X = 6\), \(n = 10\)). NOTE: Recall that Beta(1,1) is uniform across the (0,1) interval.