Interpreting the likelihood function

In the previous exercise you approximated the likelihood function shown below. The likelihood highlights the relative compatibility of different possible values of \(p\), your underlying election support, with the observed poll in which \(X = 6\) of \(n = 10\) voters supported you. Specifically, the height of the likelihood function at any given value of \(p\) reflects the relative plausibility of observing these particular polling data if your underlying support were equal to \(p\). Thus which of the following two scenarios is more compatible with the poll data?

  • Scenario 1: your underlying support \(p\) is around 45%.
  • Scenario 2: your underlying support \(p\) is around 55%.

Answer the question
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