Updating with simulation
We see 11 out of 20 flips from a coin that is either fair (50% chance of heads) or biased (75% chance of heads). How likely is it that the coin is fair? Answer this by simulating 50,000 fair coins and 50,000 biased coins.
Bu egzersiz
Foundations of Probability in R
kursunun bir parçasıdırEgzersiz talimatları
- Simulate 50,000 cases of flipping 20 coins from a fair coin (50% chance of heads), as well as from a biased coin (75% chance of heads). Save these variables as
fairandbiasedrespectively. - Find the number of fair coins where exactly 11/20 came up heads, then the number of biased coins where exactly 11/20 came up heads. Save them as
fair_11andbiased_11respectively. - Find the fraction of all coins that came up heads 11 times that were fair coins- this is the posterior probability that a coin with 11/20 is fair.
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Bu örnek kodu tamamlayarak bu egzersizi bitirin.
# Simulate 50000 cases of flipping 20 coins from fair and from biased
fair <-
biased <-
# How many fair cases, and how many biased, led to exactly 11 heads?
fair_11 <-
biased_11 <-
# Find the fraction of fair coins that are 11 out of all coins that were 11