De balans van Ford voorspellen

Nu we de ratio's voor Ford hebben, wil het management deze voor het boekjaar 2018 verbeteren.

Eén ratio springt er in het bijzonder uit die het management wil verbeteren: de debiteurenratio in dagen. Die staat nu op 146 dagen. Dat is weliswaar beter dan Nissan (244 dagen), maar nog altijd veel hoger dan Toyota, de koploper in de sector (31 dagen).

Het management wil het aantal debiteurendagen onder de 100 brengen.

Deze variabelen zijn al ingesteld:

filtered_balance_sheet bevat de rij 'vorderingen' van de balans.
ddays = 99 is het doel voor debiteurendagen.
sales = 156776 is de huidige omzet.

De formule om debiteurendagen te berekenen is: \(\dfrac{\text{closing balance debtors}}{\text{sales}} * 365\).

Deze oefening maakt deel uit van de cursus

Financiële forecasting in Python

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Probeer deze oefening eens door deze voorbeeldcode in te vullen.

# Calculate the forecasted sales 
f_sales = ____ * ____

# Solve for the forecasted debtors' ending balance
f_debtors_end = ____ * ____ / 365

print("If sales rise by 10% and the debtor days decrease to {:.0f} then the forecasted closing balance for debtors will be {:.0f}.".format(ddays, ____))

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Deze oefening maakt deel uit van de cursus

Financiële forecasting in Python

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Begin de cursus gratis

In this chapter, we will learn the basics of financial statements, with a specific focus on the income statement, which provides details on our sales, costs, and profits. We will learn how to calculate profitability metrics and finish off what we have learned by building our profit forecast for Tesla!

Exercise 1: Introduction to financial statements Exercise 2: Calculating gross profit Exercise 3: Calculating net profit Exercise 4: Elements within net profit & gross profit Exercise 5: Calculating sales & Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)Exercise 6: Calculating sales Exercise 7: Forecasting sales with a discount Exercise 8: Calculating COGS Exercise 9: Calculating the break-even point Exercise 10: Working with raw forecast datasets Exercise 11: Tesla income statement Exercise 12: Forecasting profit for Tesla

In this chapter, we will learn a bit more about the balance sheet, covering assets and liabilities and specific ratios to help evaluate the financial health and efficiency of a company, as well as how these ratios can assist us in building a great forecast.

Exercise 1: Introductie van de balans Exercise 2: Debiteuren (te ontvangen rekeningen) berekenen Exercise 3: Oninbare vorderingen Exercise 4: Crediteuren (accounts payable) berekenen Exercise 5: Inzicht in crediteuren en debiteuren Exercise 6: Efficiëntieratio’s van de balans - Deel 1 Exercise 7: Omlooptijd debiteuren (debtor days)Exercise 8: Days payable outstanding Exercise 9: Efficiëntieratio’s van de balans - Deel 2 Exercise 10: Dagen in voorraden en activarendement (asset turnover ratio)Exercise 11: Ratio’s begrijpen Exercise 12: Balansratio’s berekenen voor Ford Exercise 13: De balans van Ford voorspellen

Huidige oefening

We have gotten a basic understanding of income statements and balance sheets. However, consolidating data for forecasting is complex, so in this chapter, we will look at some basic tools to help solve some of the complexities specifically relating to finance - working with dates and different financial periods, and formatting our raw data into the correct format for financial forecasting.

Exercise 1: Financial periods and how to work with them Exercise 2: Converting quarters into months Exercise 3: Merging months into quarters Exercise 4: The datetime library Exercise 5: Working with the datetime library Exercise 6: Converting date formats - simple Exercise 7: Converting date formats - explicit Exercise 8: Tips and tricks when working with datasets Exercise 9: Working with datasets - month totals Exercise 10: Working with datasets - combining datasets Exercise 11: Working with datasets - exporting data

In this chapter, we will be exploring two more aspects to creating a good forecast. First, we will look at assumptions, what drives them and what happens when an assumption changes? Next, we will look at variances, as a forecast is built at one point in time, but what happens when the actual results do not correspond to our forecast? We need to build a sensitive forecast that can be sensitive to changes in both assumptions and take into account variances, and this is what we will explore in this chapter.

Exercise 1: Building sensitive forecast models Exercise 2: Weighted probability Exercise 3: Market sentiment Exercise 4: Dependencies and sensitivity Exercise 5: Assigning dependencies for sales and COGS Exercise 6: Building a sensitivity analysis for gross profit Exercise 7: Assigning dependencies for expenses Exercise 8: Build a sensitivity analysis for the net profit Exercise 9: Working with variances in the forecast Exercise 10: Building an alternate forecast Exercise 11: Building a gap analysis between forecasts Exercise 12: Setting dependencies for Netflix Exercise 13: Calculating an alternative forecast for Netflix