De prijs optimaliseren

Goed gedaan met het fitten en controleren van het model! Tijd voor de praktijk: je baas vraagt je om de avocadoprijs te kiezen die de hoogste winst oplevert, en erbij te vermelden welke winst je kunt verwachten. Ook willen ze dat de prijs deelbaar is door $0.25 zodat klanten makkelijk met kwartjes kunnen betalen.

In deze oefening gebruik je je model om het volume en de winst te voorspellen voor een paar logische prijzen. Vervolgens visualiseer je de predictieve verdelingen om de optimale prijs te kiezen. Tot slot bereken je het credible interval voor je winstvoorspelling. Aan de slag met optimaliseren!

De posterior-gemiddelden die je eerder hebt berekend zijn beschikbaar als intercept_mean, organic_mean, price_mean en sd_mean. Daarnaast zijn pymc3, arviz en numpy geïmporteerd als respectievelijk pm, az en np.

Deze oefening maakt deel uit van de cursus

Bayesian Data Analysis in Python

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Praktische interactieve oefening

Probeer deze oefening eens door deze voorbeeldcode in te vullen.

# For each price, predict volume and use it to predict profit
predicted_profit_per_price = {}
for price in [0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.25]:
    pred_mean = (____)
    volume_pred = ____(____, ____, size=1000)
    profit_pred = ____
    predicted_profit_per_price.update({price: profit_pred})

Code bewerken en uitvoeren

Deze oefening maakt deel uit van de cursus

Bayesian Data Analysis in Python

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Begin de cursus gratis

Take your first steps in the Bayesian world. In this chapter, you’ll be introduced to the basic concepts of probability and statistical distributions, as well as to the famous Bayes' Theorem, the cornerstone of Bayesian methods. Finally, you’ll build your first Bayesian model to draw conclusions from randomized coin tosses.

Exercise 1: Who is Bayes? What is Bayes?Exercise 2: Bayesians vs. Frequentists Exercise 3: Probability distributions Exercise 4: Probability and Bayes' Theorem Exercise 5: Let's play cards Exercise 6: Bayesian spam filter Exercise 7: What does the test say?Exercise 8: Tasting the Bayes Exercise 9: Tossing a coin Exercise 10: The more you toss, the more you learn Exercise 11: Hey, is this coin fair?

It’s time to look under the Bayesian hood. You’ll learn how to apply Bayes' Theorem to drug-effectiveness data to estimate the parameters of probability distributions using the grid approximation technique, and update these estimates as new data become available. Next, you’ll learn how to incorporate prior knowledge into the model before finally practicing the important skill of reporting results to a non-technical audience.

Exercise 1: Under the Bayesian hood Exercise 2: Towards grid approximation Exercise 3: Grid approximation without prior knowledge Exercise 4: Updating posterior belief Exercise 5: Prior belief Exercise 6: The truth of the prior Exercise 7: Picking the right prior Exercise 8: Simulating posterior draws Exercise 9: Reporting Bayesian results Exercise 10: Point estimates Exercise 11: Highest Posterior Density credible intervals Exercise 12: The meaning of credibility

Apply your newly acquired Bayesian data analysis skills to solve real-world business challenges. You’ll work with online sales marketing data to conduct A/B tests, decision analysis, and forecasting with linear regression models.

Exercise 1: A/B testing Exercise 2: Simulate beta posterior Exercise 3: Posterior click rates Exercise 4: A or B, and how sure are we?Exercise 5: How bad can it be?Exercise 6: Decision analysis Exercise 7: Decision analysis: cost Exercise 8: Decision analysis: profit Exercise 9: Regression and forecasting Exercise 10: Defining a Bayesian regression model Exercise 11: Analyzing regression parameters Exercise 12: Predictive distribution

In this final chapter, you’ll take advantage of the powerful PyMC3 package to easily fit Bayesian regression models, conduct sanity checks on a model's convergence, select between competing models, and generate predictions for new data. To wrap up, you’ll apply what you’ve learned to find the optimal price for avocados in a Bayesian data analysis case study. Good luck!

Exercise 1: Markovketen-Monte Carlo en het fitten van modellen Exercise 2: Markov Chain Monte Carlo Exercise 3: Steekproeven trekken uit de posterior Exercise 4: Resultaten interpreteren en modellen vergelijken Exercise 5: Posterior-trekkingen inspecteren Exercise 6: Modellen vergelijken met WAIC Exercise 7: Voorspellingen maken Exercise 8: Steekproeven uit predictieve dichtheid Exercise 9: Testfout inschatten Exercise 10: Wat kost een avocado?Exercise 11: Het model fitten Exercise 12: Het model inspecteren Exercise 13: De prijs optimaliseren

Huidige oefening

Exercise 14: Tot slot