Waiting for the next Secretariat

Unfortunately, Justin was not alive when Secretariat ran the Belmont in 1973. Do you think he will get to see a performance like that? To answer this, you are interested in how many years you would expect to wait until you see another performance like Secretariat's. How is the waiting time until the next performance as good or better than Secretariat's distributed? Choose the best answer.

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Possible Answers

Normal, because the distribution of Belmont winning times are Normally distributed.
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Normal, because there is a most-expected waiting time, so there should be a single peak to the distribution.
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Exponential: It is very unlikely for a horse to be faster than Secretariat, so the distribution should decay away to zero for high waiting time.
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Exponential: A horse as fast as Secretariat is a rare event, which can be modeled as a Poisson process, and the waiting time between arrivals of a Poisson process is Exponentially distributed.
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