Choose the right P, Q & M analogs
Your company expects the total smartphone market between 2007 and 2022 to be 2 billion devices after the 2007 launch.
Non-smart phones historically had p = .008
and q = .421
. Looking at historical p
and q
values you notice that Color TV had half the p
value of Black & White TV. People took time to replace their old TVs, so there were less "innovators". However, in the end, the imitators q
stayed the same because everyone transitioned to Color TV. Thus, you expect smartphone innovators to be half of the regular cell phones yet the overall q
to be the same.
Forecast the rest of the sales within a BASS model. Given the first four years of data choose the most applicable p
, q
and m
.
This exercise is part of the course
Data-Driven Decision Making for Business
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