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Interpreting conditional probability

You're analyzing data for a subscription-based company to predict whether a customer will cancel their subscription, also called churning. Initially, 10% of all customers churn. The company also tracks engagement behavior and finds:

Customer Behavior Probability
Churn rate among low engagement customers 40%
Churn rate among high engagement customers 5%

A customer is flagged as low engagement. The probability for low engagement is 30%.

Using a Bayesian approach, how should you interpret this customer's churn risk now that you know engagement is low?

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Advanced Probability: Uncertainty in Data

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