Stepping out the expected return
You previously calculated the volatility and simulated the stock prices for the ABC healthcare and pharmaceutical company. You used a random normal estimation for that simulation. In these exercises, you will figure out the most likely stock prices and show that they are log-normally distributed.
First, add the expected return (k) value for the stock. Next, use =exp((ln(Stock Price)+k*Time Horizon)-4*Volatility*sqrt(Time Horizon))
to calculate minimum and maximum values for the stock.
This exercise is part of the course
Financial Modeling in Google Sheets
Exercise instructions
- Use the expected return formula
=Annual Return - Volatility^2 / 2
inB7
. - Use the formula above to estimate the minimum and maximum stock values in
B9:B10
. - Use
-4*Volatility...
for the minimum and+4*Volatility...
for the maximum.
Hands-on interactive exercise
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