Model choice - II

In the previous exercise, you fit three different models to the logged and differenced varve series (dl_varve). The data are displayed to the right. The extracted AIC and BIC from each run are tabled below.

Model	AIC	BIC
MA(1)	-0.4437	-1.4366
MA(2)	-0.4659	-1.4518
ARMA(1,1)	-0.4702	-1.4561

Using the table, indicate which statement below is FALSE.

Possible answers

AIC and BIC both prefer the ARMA(1,1) model over the other fitted models.

AIC prefers the MA(1) model.

BIC prefers the MA(2) over the MA(1)

Because they use different penalties, the AIC and BIC can prefer different models.

Exercise

Model choice - II

Instructions

Possible answers