Exercise

# Model choice - II

In the previous exercise, you fit three different models to the logged and differenced varve series (`dl_varve`

). The data are displayed to the right. The extracted AIC and BIC from each run are tabled below.

Model | AIC | BIC |
---|---|---|

MA(1) | -0.4437 | -1.4366 |

MA(2) | -0.4659 | -1.4518 |

ARMA(1,1) | -0.4702 | -1.4561 |

Using the table, indicate which statement below is FALSE.

Instructions

**50 XP**

##### Possible Answers

- AIC and BIC both prefer the ARMA(1,1) model over the other fitted models.
- AIC prefers the MA(1) model.
- BIC prefers the MA(2) over the MA(1)
- Because they use different penalties, the AIC and BIC can prefer different models.