Exercise

Forecasting monthly unemployment

Previously, you fit an SARIMA(2,1,0, 0,1,1)₁₂ model to the monthly US unemployment time series unemp. You will now use that model to forecast the data 3 years.

The unemp data are preloaded into your R workspace and plotted on the right.

Instructions

100 XP

Begin by again fitting the model used earlier in this chapter (using the sarima() command). Recheck the parameter significance and residual diagnostics.
Use sarima.for() to forecast the data 3 years into the future.

Take Hint (-30 XP)