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Exercise

Forecasting monthly unemployment

Previously, you fit an SARIMA(2,1,0, 0,1,1)12 model to the monthly US unemployment time series unemp. You will now use that model to forecast the data 3 years.

The unemp data are preloaded into your R workspace and plotted on the right.

Instructions
100 XP
  • Begin by again fitting the model used earlier in this chapter (using the sarima() command). Recheck the parameter significance and residual diagnostics.
  • Use sarima.for() to forecast the data 3 years into the future.
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