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Exercise

Bayes Rule in Python

In this exercise you will undertake a practical example of setting up Bayes formula, obtaining new evidence and updating your 'beliefs' in order to get a more accurate result. The example will relate to the likelihood that someone will close their account for your online software product.

These are the probabilities we know:

  • 7% (0.07) of people are likely to close their account next month
  • 15% (0.15) of people with accounts are unhappy with your product (you don't know who though!)
  • 35% (0.35) of people who are likely to close their account are unhappy with your product

Instructions 1/3

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  • Assign the different probabilities (as decimals) to variables. p_unhappy is the likelihood someone is unhappy, p_unhappy_close is the probability that someone is unhappy with the product, given they are going to close their account.