This chapter will introduce some basic principles that will be used throughout the course, such as writing loops and functions. Then, we dive into a couple of classic problems: the Birthday Problem, and Monty Hall.

Introduction to the Course

Writing a simple function

Writing a simple for loop

Setting a seed

The Birthday Problem

Simulation of a single n

Using the pbirthday function

Make a plot

Monty Hall

Win probability with "stick"

Writing a function to "switch"

Win probability with "switch"

Introduction and Classic Puzzles

In this chapter, we explore games in which dice are rolled, including Yahtzee, Settlers of Catan, and Craps. You will learn tools such as using built-in R functions to calculate combinatorics, and using functions such as replicate and the %in% operator.

Yahtzee

Probability of a Yahtzee

Probability of a large straight

Probability of a full house

Settlers of Catan

Simulate one game

Simulate 10000 games

Craps

Function to keep rolling when point is established

Function to run one round

Probability of winning the pass line bet

Games with Dice

The puzzles in this chapter were inspired by ideas encountered on the internet. In order to solve them, you will learn to combine tools such as nested for loops, and the functions round, identical, and sapply.

Memfaktorkan Kuadrat

Kondisi mana yang akan mengembalikan TRUE?

Tulis fungsi untuk memeriksa keterfaktoran

Simulasikan probabilitas dapat difaktorkan

Kode Sandi iPhone Empat Digit

Empat nilai yang diketahui

Tiga nilai diketahui

Pembatalan Kesalahan Tanda

Simulasi kesalahan tanda: probabilitas konstan

Simulasi kesalahan tanda: mengubah probabilitas

Inspired from the Web

This chapter explores questions in poker, including the most often televised version of Texas Hold'em. We will learn to code for win probabilities with any given number of outs, and also explore a more theoretical model of poker known as the von Neumann model. We will learn to use functions such as Reduce, runif, and ifelse.

Texas Hold'em

Calculate expected value with one card to come

Two cards to come

Consecutive Cashes

Two consecutive years

Function to evaluate set of five years

Simulate probability for a given set of five years

von Neumann Model of Poker

One round of von Neumann Poker

Function to simulate one round with betting

Simulate many iterations of von Neumann model

Congratulations!

Poker

Ingin meningkatkan kemampuan probabilitas Anda ke tingkat berikutnya? Kursus ini akan membantu Anda mencapainya, dengan pembelajaran berbasis masalah menggunakan teka-teki probabilitas sebagai kerangka. Saat Anda dipandu melalui penyelesaiannya, Anda akan memperoleh alat pemrograman dan strategi umum untuk menyelesaikan masalah probabilitas yang mungkin Anda temui dalam banyak situasi lain. Diatur berdasarkan tema, kursus dimulai dengan masalah klasik seperti Masalah Ulang Tahun dan Monty Hall, dan diakhiri dengan teka-teki yang melibatkan poker seperti Texas Hold'em dan World Series of Poker!

Intermediate R

Foundations of Probability in R

Pelajari cara menjawab soal probabilitas di R dengan strategi dan kerangka yang efektif.

Teka-teki Probabilitas di R

Pelajari strategi untuk menjawab soal-soal probabilitas di R dengan menyelesaikan berbagai teka-teki probabilitas.

Kondisi mana yang akan mengembalikan TRUE?

Teka-teki Probabilitas di R

Latihan interaktif praktis