Exercise

Updating with simulation after 16 heads

We see 16 out of 20 flips from a coin that is either fair (50% chance of heads) or biased (75% chance of heads). How likely is it that the coin is fair?

Instructions

100 XP

Simulate 50,000 cases of flipping 20 coins from a fair coin (50% chance of heads), as well as from a biased coin (75% chance of heads). Save these variables as fair and biased respectively.
Find the number of fair coins where exactly 16/20 came up heads, then the number of biased coins where exactly 16/20 came up heads. Save them as fair_16 and biased_16 respectively.
Print the fraction of all coins that came up heads 16 times that were fair coins- this is the posterior probability that a coin with 16/20 is fair.

Take Hint (-30 XP)