Exercise

Updating after 16 heads

Suppose that when you flip a different coin (that could either be fair or biased) 20 times, you see 16 heads.

Without doing any math, which do you now think is more likely- that this coin is fair, or that it's biased?

Instructions

50 XP

Possible Answers

More likely that the coin is fair.
More likely that the coin is biased.
Still equally likely.