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Stepping out the expected return

You previously calculated the volatility and simulated the stock prices for the ABC healthcare and pharmaceutical company. You used a random normal estimation for that simulation. In these exercises, you will figure out the most likely stock prices and show that they are log-normally distributed.

First, add the expected return (k) value for the stock. Next, use =exp((ln(Stock Price)+k*Time Horizon)-4*Volatility*sqrt(Time Horizon)) to calculate minimum and maximum values for the stock.

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  • Use the expected return formula =Annual Return - Volatility^2 / 2 in B7.
  • Use the formula above to estimate the minimum and maximum stock values in B9:B10.
  • Use -4*Volatility... for the minimum and +4*Volatility... for the maximum.

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