Prevedi i noleggi di biciclette con il modello random forest

In questo esercizio userai il modello che hai addestrato nell'esercizio precedente per prevedere i noleggi di biciclette per il mese di agosto.

La funzione predict() (docs) per un modello ranger produce una lista. Uno degli elementi di questa lista è predictions, un vettore di valori previsti. Puoi accedere a predictions con la notazione $ per gli elementi con nome di una lista:

predict(model, data)$predictions

Il modello bike_model_rf e l'insieme di dati bikesAugust (per la valutazione) sono già stati caricati.

Questo esercizio fa parte del corso

Supervised Learning in R: Regression

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Istruzioni dell'esercizio

Chiama predict() su bikesAugust per prevedere il numero di biciclette noleggiate in agosto (cnt). Aggiungi le previsioni a bikesAugust come colonna pred.
Compila gli spazi vuoti per calcolare la root mean squared error delle previsioni.
- Il modello di Poisson che hai costruito per questi dati aveva un RMSE di circa 112,6. Come si comporta questo modello a confronto?
Compila gli spazi vuoti per tracciare i conteggi reali dei noleggi di biciclette (cnt) rispetto alle previsioni (pred sull'asse x).

Esercizio pratico interattivo

Prova a risolvere questo esercizio completando il codice di esempio.

# bikesAugust is available
str(bikesAugust)

# bike_model_rf is available
bike_model_rf

# Make predictions on the August data
bikesAugust$pred <- ___(___, ___)$___

# Calculate the RMSE of the predictions
bikesAugust %>% 
  mutate(residual = ___)  %>% # calculate the residual
  summarize(rmse  = ___)      # calculate rmse

# Plot actual outcome vs predictions (predictions on x-axis)
ggplot(bikesAugust, aes(x = ___, y = ___)) + 
  geom_point() + 
  geom_abline()

Modifica ed esegui il codice

Questo esercizio fa parte del corso

Supervised Learning in R: Regression

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In this chapter we introduce the concept of regression from a machine learning point of view. We will present the fundamental regression method: linear regression. We will show how to fit a linear regression model and to make predictions from the model.

Exercise 1: Welcome and Introduction Exercise 2: Identify the regression tasks Exercise 3: Linear regression - the fundamental method Exercise 4: Code a simple one-variable regression Exercise 5: Examining a model Exercise 6: Predicting once you fit a model Exercise 7: Predicting from the unemployment model Exercise 8: Multivariate linear regression (Part 1)Exercise 9: Multivariate linear regression (Part 2)Exercise 10: Wrapping up linear regression

Now that we have learned how to fit basic linear regression models, we will learn how to evaluate how well our models perform. We will review evaluating a model graphically, and look at two basic metrics for regression models. We will also learn how to train a model that will perform well in the wild, not just on training data. Although we will demonstrate these techniques using linear regression, all these concepts apply to models fit with any regression algorithm.

Exercise 1: Evaluating a model graphically Exercise 2: Graphically evaluate the unemployment model Exercise 3: The gain curve to evaluate the unemployment model Exercise 4: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)Exercise 5: Calculate RMSE Exercise 6: R-squared Exercise 7: Calculate R-squared Exercise 8: Correlation and R-squared Exercise 9: Properly Training a Model Exercise 10: Generating a random test/train split Exercise 11: Train a model using test/train split Exercise 12: Evaluate a model using test/train split Exercise 13: Create a cross validation plan Exercise 14: Evaluate a modeling procedure using n-fold cross-validation

Before moving on to more sophisticated regression techniques, we will look at some other modeling issues: modeling with categorical inputs, interactions between variables, and when you might consider transforming inputs and outputs before modeling. While more sophisticated regression techniques manage some of these issues automatically, it's important to be aware of them, in order to understand which methods best handle various issues -- and which issues you must still manage yourself.

Exercise 1: Categorical inputs Exercise 2: Examining the structure of categorical inputs Exercise 3: Modeling with categorical inputs Exercise 4: Interactions Exercise 5: Modeling an interaction Exercise 6: Modeling an interaction (2)Exercise 7: Transforming the response before modeling Exercise 8: Relative error Exercise 9: Modeling log-transformed monetary output Exercise 10: Comparing RMSE and root-mean-squared Relative Error Exercise 11: Transforming inputs before modeling Exercise 12: Input transforms: the "hockey stick"Exercise 13: Input transforms: the "hockey stick" (2)

Now that we have mastered linear models, we will begin to look at techniques for modeling situations that don't meet the assumptions of linearity. This includes predicting probabilities and frequencies (values bounded between 0 and 1); predicting counts (nonnegative integer values, and associated rates); and responses that have a non-linear but additive relationship to the inputs. These algorithms are variations on the standard linear model.

Exercise 1: Logistic regression to predict probabilities Exercise 2: Fit a model of sparrow survival probability Exercise 3: Predict sparrow survival Exercise 4: Poisson and quasipoisson regression to predict counts Exercise 5: Poisson or quasipoisson Exercise 6: Fit a model to predict bike rental counts Exercise 7: Predict bike rentals on new data Exercise 8: Visualize the bike rental predictions Exercise 9: GAM to learn non-linear transforms Exercise 10: Writing formulas for GAM models Exercise 11: Writing formulas for GAM models (2)Exercise 12: Model soybean growth with GAM Exercise 13: Predict with the soybean model on test data

In this chapter we will look at modeling algorithms that do not assume linearity or additivity, and that can learn limited types of interactions among input variables. These algorithms are *tree-based* methods that work by combining ensembles of *decision trees* that are learned from the training data.

Exercise 1: L'intuizione dietro i metodi basati su alberi Exercise 2: Prevedere con un albero di decisione Exercise 3: Random forest Exercise 4: Crea un modello Random Forest per i noleggi di biciclette Exercise 5: Prevedi i noleggi di biciclette con il modello random forest

Esercizio in corso

Exercise 6: Visualizza le previsioni del modello random forest per le bici Exercise 7: One-Hot Encoding delle variabili categoriche Exercise 8: vtreat su un piccolo esempio Exercise 9: Livelli inediti Exercise 10: Usa vtreat sui dati di noleggio bici Exercise 11: Gradient boosting machines Exercise 12: Trova il numero giusto di alberi per un gradient boosting machine Exercise 13: Stima un modello xgboost per il noleggio bici e prevedi Exercise 14: Valuta il modello xgboost per il noleggio bici Exercise 15: Visualizza il modello xgboost per il noleggio bici