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Model stock price probability

From the stock steps, you can now calculate the probability of each price of your stock. You will first calculate the cumalative probability using the normdist() function. Knowing the cumulative probability of the stock allows you to then calculate the probability between two prices, which will show you the most likely prices given your input values.

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Financial Modeling in Google Sheets

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Instructions

  • Use normdist() with arguments for the natural log of the stock price in column A as x.
  • For the second argument, use the natural log(stock price) + k * Time Horizon.
  • For the third argument, use volatility * square root (Time Horizon).
  • Use TRUE to see a cumulative probability for the last argument.

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