1. Welcome to the course!
Hi! Welcome to the first video of the Introduction to Time Series Analysis course. My name is David. I'm a professor at Cornell University, and I will help you master the basics of modeling and forecasting time series data.
2. Introduction
A time series is a sequence of data in chronological order. It is very common for any type of data to be recorded sequentially, or over time. And we find time series data everywhere, and especially in Financial and Economic applications.
Examples include:
The daily log returns on a stock, such as BMW
3. Time series example
Or monthly values of the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, which is a measure of the national inflation rate.
4. Time series data
Time series data is dated or time stamped. The print function will display time series data along with this date information. It may be organized as a long list, as we have for the BMW stock data, or as a table, as we have for the CPI data.
5. Time series plots
The plot() function can be used to make a basic time series plot. The defining feature is that time is indexed on the horizontal axis, and the observations are shown from the first, on the left, to the last, on the right. A line is commonly added to connect neighboring observations, to improve interpretability and to emphasize any trends or patterns.
6. Basic time series models
7. Time series plots
Let's get started!