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Exercise

CVaR and loss cover selection

In previous exercises you saw that both the T and the Gaussian KDE distributions fit portfolio losses for the crisis period fairly well. Given this, which of these is best for risk management? One way to choose is to select the distribution that provides the largest loss cover, to cover the "worst worst-case scenario" of losses.

The t and kde distributions are available and have been fit to 2007-2008 portfolio losses (t fitted parameters are in p). You'll derive the one day 99% CVaR estimate for each distribution; the largest CVaR estimate is then the 'safest' reserve amount to hold, covering expected losses that exceed the 99% VaR.

The kde instance has been given a special .expect() method, just for this exercise, to compute the expected value needed for the CVaR.

Instructions
100 XP
  • Find the 99% VaR using np.quantile() applied to random samples from the t and kde distributions.
  • Compute the integral required for the CVaR estimates using the .expect() method for each distribution.
  • Find and display the 99% CVaR estimates for both distributions.
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