Calculate expected value with one card to come
Suppose that there is just one card left to come, and you know that 8 of the 46 remaining cards in the deck will give you a win (recall that these 8 cards are known as outs). Otherwise, you will lose.
There is currently $50 in the pot, and you are currently facing a $10 bet from your opponent. Assuming no further betting, then, from this point, if you call the bet and win, your profit is $50. If you call the bet and lose, your profit is negative $10.
This exercise is part of the course
Probability Puzzles in R
Exercise instructions
- Fill in the values to define the vector of probabilities of either winning or losing.
- Fill in the values to define the vector of possible dollar outcomes.
- Use these two quantities to calculate the expected value of calling the bet.
Hands-on interactive exercise
Have a go at this exercise by completing this sample code.
p_win <- 8 / 46
curr_pot <- 50
bet <- 10
# Define vector of probabilities
probs <- c(___)
# Define vector of values
values <- c(___)
# Calculate expected value