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Calculate expected value with one card to come

Suppose that there is just one card left to come, and you know that 8 of the 46 remaining cards in the deck will give you a win (recall that these 8 cards are known as outs). Otherwise, you will lose.

There is currently $50 in the pot, and you are currently facing a $10 bet from your opponent. Assuming no further betting, then, from this point, if you call the bet and win, your profit is $50. If you call the bet and lose, your profit is negative $10.

This exercise is part of the course

Probability Puzzles in R

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Exercise instructions

  • Fill in the values to define the vector of probabilities of either winning or losing.
  • Fill in the values to define the vector of possible dollar outcomes.
  • Use these two quantities to calculate the expected value of calling the bet.

Hands-on interactive exercise

Have a go at this exercise by completing this sample code.

p_win <- 8 / 46
curr_pot <- 50
bet <- 10

# Define vector of probabilities
probs <- c(___)

# Define vector of values
values <- c(___)

# Calculate expected value
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