Modeling consecutive returns

Let's quantify the relationship between returns in 2019 and 2018 by running a linear regression and making predictions. By looking at companies with extremely high or extremely low returns in 2018, we can see if their performance was similar in 2019.

sp500_yearly_returns is available and dplyr is loaded.

This exercise is part of the course

Introduction to Regression in R

Hands-on interactive exercise

Have a go at this exercise by completing this sample code.

# Run a linear regression on return_2019 vs. return_2018 using sp500_yearly_returns
mdl_returns <- ___




# See the result
mdl_returns

Edit and Run Code

This exercise is part of the course

Introduction to Regression in R

IntermediateSkill Level

4.8+

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You’ll learn the basics of this popular statistical model, what regression is, and how linear and logistic regressions differ. You’ll then learn how to fit simple linear regression models with numeric and categorical explanatory variables, and how to describe the relationship between the response and explanatory variables using model coefficients.

Exercise 1: A tale of two variables Exercise 2: Which one is the response variable?Exercise 3: Visualizing two variables Exercise 4: Fitting a linear regression Exercise 5: Estimate the intercept Exercise 6: Estimate the slope Exercise 7: Linear regression with lm()Exercise 8: Categorical explanatory variables Exercise 9: Visualizing numeric vs. categorical Exercise 10: Calculating means by category Exercise 11: lm() with a categorical explanatory variable

In this chapter, you’ll discover how to use linear regression models to make predictions on Taiwanese house prices and Facebook advert clicks. You’ll also grow your regression skills as you get hands-on with model objects, understand the concept of "regression to the mean", and learn how to transform variables in a dataset.

Exercise 1: Making predictions Exercise 2: Predicting house prices Exercise 3: Visualizing predictions Exercise 4: The limits of prediction Exercise 5: Working with model objects Exercise 6: Extracting model elements Exercise 7: Manually predicting house prices Exercise 8: Using broom Exercise 9: Regression to the mean Exercise 10: Home run!Exercise 11: Plotting consecutive portfolio returns Exercise 12: Modeling consecutive returns

Current Exercise

Exercise 13: Transforming variables Exercise 14: Transforming the explanatory variable Exercise 15: Transforming the response variable too

In this chapter, you’ll learn how to ask questions of your model to assess fit. You’ll learn how to quantify how well a linear regression model fits, diagnose model problems using visualizations, and understand the leverage and influence of each observation used to create the model.

Exercise 1: Quantifying model fit Exercise 2: Coefficient of determination Exercise 3: Residual standard error Exercise 4: Visualizing model fit Exercise 5: Residuals vs. fitted values Exercise 6: Q-Q plot of residuals Exercise 7: Scale-location Exercise 8: Drawing diagnostic plots Exercise 9: Outliers, leverage, and influence Exercise 10: Leverage Exercise 11: Influence Exercise 12: Extracting leverage and influence

Learn to fit logistic regression models. Using real-world data, you’ll predict the likelihood of a customer closing their bank account as probabilities of success and odds ratios, and quantify model performance using confusion matrices.

Exercise 1: Why you need logistic regression Exercise 2: Exploring the explanatory variables Exercise 3: Visualizing linear and logistic models Exercise 4: Logistic regression with glm()Exercise 5: Predictions and odds ratios Exercise 6: Probabilities Exercise 7: Most likely outcome Exercise 8: Odds ratio Exercise 9: Log odds ratio Exercise 10: Quantifying logistic regression fit Exercise 11: Calculating the confusion matrix Exercise 12: Measuring logistic model performance Exercise 13: Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity Exercise 14: Congratulations