Exercise

Exercise 4 - Calculate the Probability

Assume that the probability of a murderer finding a way to kill her two children without leaving evidence of physical harm is:

\(\mbox{Pr}(\mbox{two children found dead with no evidence of harm} \mid \mbox{mother is a murderer} ) = 0.50\)

Assume that the murder rate among mothers is 1 in 1,000,000.

\(\mbox{Pr}(\mbox{mother is a murderer} ) = 1/1,000,000\)

According to Bayes' rule, what is the probability of:

$$\mbox{Pr}(\mbox{mother is a murderer} \mid \mbox{two children found dead with no evidence of harm})$$

Instructions

100 XP
  • Use Bayes' rule to calculate the probability that the mother is a murderer, considering the rates of murdering mothers in the population, the probability that two siblings die of SIDS, and the probability that a murderer kills children without leaving evidence of physical harm.
  • Print your result to the console.