Exercise

# Exercise 12 - Change the Priors

We had set the prior variance \(\tau\) to 0.01, reflecting that these races are often close.

Change the prior variance to include values ranging from 0.005 to 0.05 and observe how the probability of Trump winning Florida changes by making a plot.

Instructions

**100 XP**

- Create a vector of values of
`taus`

by executing the sample code. - Create a function using
`function(){}`

called`p_calc`

that takes the value`tau`

as the only argument, then calculates`B`

from`tau`

and`sigma`

, and then calculates the probability of Trump winning, as we did in the previous exercise. - Apply your
`p_calc`

function across all the new values of`taus`

. - Use the
`plot`

function to plot \(\tau\) on the x-axis and the new probabilities on the y-axis.