Calculating an alternative forecast for Netflix

The original assumptions are as follows: the total amount of subscribers at a 78% success rate results in 39,000 subscribers. We used this to build the forecast numbers.

However, the success rate for 2019 has been recalculated to have a probability of 65%, and the management has asked us to make an adjusted forecast based on this value.

The ratio between the subscribers and sales is 1 subscriber to 0.46 USD sales, set to variable sales_subs_ratio. In addition, the variables for number of subscribers per percentage point (n_subscribers_per_pp) and our prior calculation of forecast1 have also been set.

Set the percentage of successes to 65% (as a whole number, not a fraction).
Calculate the new number of subscribers in the dependency as the product of the number of subscribers per percentage point times the percentage of successes.
Calculate the new forecast, forecast2, as the new number of subscribers times the sales to subscriptions ratio.

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Exercise

Calculating an alternative forecast for Netflix

Instructions 1/2