Is Jim slow?

Recall that John's prior for my average reaction time M was normal with mean 240 and standard deviation 15.

After observing my less than impressive scores on the reaction test, John's posterior density for M is \(Normal(270.5, 5.8)\) shown in the figure.

John will decide that I am "slow" (and require some additional training) if the probability that M exceeds 275 is 30% or higher - this probability is the shaded region in the figure to the right.

Perform the appropriate calculation in the console with the pnorm() function, then select the right answer.

Possible Answers

The probability is sufficiently high to conclude that Jim is "slow".
The probability is not sufficiently high to conclude that Jim is "slow".
John is not able to make a decision based on his posterior curve.

Exercise

Is Jim slow?

Instructions

Possible Answers