Point estimates
You continue working at your government's Department of Health. You have been tasked with filling the following memo with numbers, before it is sent to the secretary.
Based on the experiments carried out by ourselves and neighboring countries, should we distribute the drug, we can expect ___ infected people to be cured. There is a 50% probability the number of cured infections will amount to at least ___, and with 90% probability it will not be less than ___.
The array of posterior draws of the drug's efficacy rate you have estimated before is available to you as drug_efficacy_posterior_draws
.
Calculate the three numbers needed to fill in the memo, knowing there are 100,000 infections at the moment. numpy
has been imported for you as np
.
This exercise is part of the course
Bayesian Data Analysis in Python
Hands-on interactive exercise
Have a go at this exercise by completing this sample code.
# Calculate the expected number of people cured
cured_expected = ____(____) * ____