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Exercise

Point estimates

You continue working at your government's Department of Health. You have been tasked with filling the following memo with numbers, before it is sent to the secretary.

Based on the experiments carried out by ourselves and neighboring countries, should we distribute the drug, we can expect ___ infected people to be cured. There is a 50% probability the number of cured infections will amount to at least ___, and with 90% probability it will not be less than ___.

The array of posterior draws of the drug's efficacy rate you have estimated before is available to you as drug_efficacy_posterior_draws.

Calculate the three numbers needed to fill in the memo, knowing there are 100,000 infections at the moment. numpy has been imported for you as np.

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  • Calculate the expected number of cured infections by multiplying the drug's expected efficacy rate (drug_efficacy_posterior_draws) by the number of infected people (100,000) and assign the result to cured_expected.