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Exercise

Generating dynamic forecasts

Now lets move a little further into the future, to dynamic predictions. What if you wanted to predict the Amazon stock price, not just for tomorrow, but for next week or next month? This is where dynamical predictions come in.

Remember that in the video you learned how it is more difficult to make precise long-term forecasts because the shock terms add up. The further into the future the predictions go, the more uncertain. This is especially true with stock data and so you will likely find that your predictions in this exercise are not as precise as those in the last exercise.

Instructions

100 XP
  • Use the results object to make a dynamic predictions for the latest 30 days and assign the result to dynamic_forecast.
  • Assign your predictions to a new variable called mean_forecast using one of the attributes of the dynamic_forecast object.
  • Extract the confidence intervals of your predictions from the dynamic_forecast object and assign them to a new variable confidence_intervals.
  • Print your mean predictions.