Plotting one-step-ahead predictions
Now that you have your predictions on the Amazon stock, you should plot these predictions to see how you've done.
You made predictions over the latest 30 days of data available, always forecasting just one day ahead. By evaluating these predictions you can judge how the model performs in making predictions for just the next day, where you don't know the answer.
The lower_limits
, upper_limits
and amazon
DataFrames as well as your mean prediction mean_forecast
that you created in the last exercise are available in your environment.
This exercise is part of the course
ARIMA Models in Python
Exercise instructions
- Plot the
amazon
data, using theamazon.index
as the x coordinates. - Plot the
mean_forecast
prediction similarly, usingmean_forecast.index
as the x-coordinates. - Plot a shaded area between
lower_limits
andupper_limits
of your confidence interval. Use the index oflower_limits
as the x coordinates.
Hands-on interactive exercise
Have a go at this exercise by completing this sample code.
# plot the amazon data
plt.plot(____, ____, label='observed')
# plot your mean predictions
plt.plot(____, ____, color='r', label='forecast')
# shade the area between your confidence limits
plt.____(____, ____,
____, color='pink')
# set labels, legends and show plot
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Amazon Stock Price - Close USD')
plt.legend()
plt.show()